David Kirby on Autism in Scotland
Autism in Scotland
Scotland has a population of just over 5 million people. In 2004 The Scottish Executive published the Audit of Services for Autistic People Statistical Report. This was the result of a questionnaire sent out to all local authority/National Health Service partnerships. Two areas, Borders and Western Isles failed to respond and were excluded from the subsequent ananlysis of results. As a consequence the Audit deals with a total population of approximately 4.9 million people.
The Audit found 3412 children and young people under 18 with a diagnosis of an autistic spectrum disorder. The Audit could only find 645 adults with a diagnosis of an autistic spectrum disorder. This finding has been taken as further proof of a putative autism epidemic by journalist David Kirby writing for The Age of Autism. Unfortunately for Kirby, he obviously has not read the report in question. Instead he offers
Many thanks to Clifford Miller for furnishing the Scottish audit data.
Miller also furnished this graph which Kirby faithfully reproduces.
A misleading source
It looks like a figure taken from the Audit. But this figure is not in the PDF version that Miller links to. Nor is it in the word.doc that I have read. The clue is in those weasel words at the top of the figure, “Data Source.” Yes, Miller invented the figure based upon data gleaned from the audit. This would matter less if it was an accurate representation of the data source. But it is not. If we start at the bottom with “Average age of diagnosis of autism - approx three,” Average age of diagnosis is nowhere mentioned in the Audit. Furthermore, the Audit only contains data on people aged 3 years and older. So is Miller claiming that everyone in Scotland was diagnosed around their third birthday? How does he explain Howlin and Moore [1997] who found a mean age of 5.69 years for diagnosis in Scotland?
Miller’s second innovation is to give us four age groups: those born up to 1954, and those born in 15 year birth cohorts: 1955 - 1970, 1971 - 1986, 1987 - 2002. These are not the age groups in the data source. The Audit does not refer to date of birth. It refers to adults over 50, adults aged 25 to 49, adults aged 18 to 24 and children aged 3 to 18. As 18 is the legal age of majority in Scotland I am going to assume they mean “up to but not including 18″ when they refer to children. Of the birth dates you can derive from these ages: up to 1954, 1955 -1979, 1980 - 1986, 1987 - 2001, only the over 50s group matches.
Miller is also dishonest when he compares adults to children in the same graph. Data for children is derived from the responses of 13 NHS boards. Only 10 NHS boards provided adult data. Those missing are
Ayrshire and Arran - population 376,000
Forth Valley - population 300,000
Greater Glasgow - population 1,200,000.
So the figures for adults are based on a population of approximately 3 million rather 5 mllion. They exclude Glasgow, the most densely populated urban area in Scotland. None of this matters to Miller. He believes there is a world epidemic of autism in children, a pandemic that is caused by “vaccines.” He does not specify which vaccines, or which components or how they might be acting to cause his pandemic. He argues that if there is no pandemic there ought to be 500,000 autistic adults requiring 24/7 care in the UK. This is plain silly. Never mind that we are talking about a spectrum of need, where most autistic adults do not require 24/7 care. If Miller were right there ought to be 133,500 autistic children requiring 24/7 care in the UK. Some do require constant care but most clearly do not.
A tenfold error
So much for Kirby’s source. What does Kirby make of this material? It turns out that he makes a complete pig’s ear of it.
Let’s look at the numbers. There are approximately 34,000 young people with autism in Scotland, born during the 16 years from 1987-2002. That is an average of 2,125 cases per birth cohort. But among older people, born during the 31 years between 1955 and 1986, there are only about 600 reported cases, or just over 19 cases a year.
If the rate of autism in Scotland had remained unchanged between 1955 and today, then there are many, many uncounted adults going without support, services, or even much recognition.
In fact, at 2,125 cases on average per year, there should be 65,875 people with autism in Scotland between the ages of 22 and 53 years alone. But only 600 have signed up for any help at all, in a country with universal healthcare, no less.Which begs a few questions: Where are the other 65,275 people in that age group with autism? Why have 109 out of every 110 adults with autism never sought, nor received, any special attention for their particular needs? Why have they not been counted? And why is there no national outrage over the neglect of so many thousands of fellow citizens going without services that they need?
In a country the size of Maine, with a population much smaller than New York City, it seems that the government would be able to locate and help these people.
Unless, of course, some of them are not there.
These figures are hogwash. Kirby may be able to use a calculator but he cannot read a graph. The figure is 3,400 not 34,000. Incredibly this post has been up for over a week now and nobody seems to have spotted such an egregious error, neither managing editor Kim Stagliano, nor editor Dan Olmsted and certainly not Kirby himself. And none of his supporters has posted a correction in the comments section, not even Barbara Fishkin who commented,
David
Thank you for this. Such piercing information. We won’t know what to do with our kids with autism as they age because THERE IS NO PRECEDENT. There never were kids afflicted like this before, in these numbers. We had better start preparing to make life work for our kids as they get older! Barbara
